The South will see two more days of active Severe Weather threats. Today, Thursday, March 2, 2023, there is a very large area in the Severe weather outlook, with the possibility of Tornadoes, Hail, and Damaging Winds. This includes areas from Texas to West Tennessee and Mississippi. Some STRONG TORNADOES will be possible across the outlook areas today. On Friday, March 3, 2023, there will be another threat of Severe Weather for a majority of the State of Alabama. This is be mainly a morning event, most likely before 12 noon, from what the current timing looks like. Damaging Winds and a few Tornadoes will be possible on Friday.
Here’s the latest from The Storm Prediction Center:
“It’s going to be busy weather-wise today and tomorrow! For today, a Moderate risk (level 4/5) for severe weather stretches from north-central TX (including the DFW metro area) to southwest AR. Primary hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
The severe weather threat will shift east tomorrow with an Enhanced risk (level 3/5) over middle Tennessee (including the Nashville area) and central Kentucky, though severe weather is possible across much of the southeastern U.S. The main hazards will be damaging straight line winds and tornadoes.
For the latest updates regarding the severe weather threat go to:
Full Day 1 Convective Outlook Text:
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this afternoon through tonight. ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will move over southwest TX later this afternoon, and then eject northeastward toward AR by the end of the period. Substantial surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and 110+ kt midlevel jet streak, from north central TX later this afternoon to western/northern AR overnight. A reservoir of 65-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present from central/east TX into LA/MS as of late morning, and continued northward advection of moisture is expected through this afternoon into tonight. The north edge of the surface warm sector is not expected to move much to the north through this evening, with a front remaining quasi-stationary from north TX to southern AR. A remnant outflow boundary will tend to slowly become more diffuse through this afternoon across the DFW area. The approach of the midlevel trough, mass response to cyclogenesis, and surface heating in cloud breaks all suggest that thunderstorm development is probable by early-mid afternoon across central TX and western north TX, with storms spreading east-northeastward into the DFW area, northeast TX and extreme southeast OK through late evening. The initial storms will likely be clusters of supercells capable of producing very large hail and swaths of damaging winds as storms grow upscale into a line along the surging cold front from central into northeast TX this evening (some of which could produce significant gusts. Forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, though the most favorable wind profiles will correspond to tonight when storm mode will likely be more linear. The compact nature of the jet structure suggests that the stronger/deeper forcing for ascent will travel along the path of cyclogenesis, from far northeast TX/southeast OK into AR tonight. South of this area, ascent will be weaker and relatively warm temperature profiles aloft suggest that storm development is more questionable with southward and eastward extent across LA/MS overnight.
