March 13 2025 (3:00 PM CT) UPDATED Severe outlook maps at the bottom
A significant and dangerous Tornado outbreak is increasingly likely from Friday night through Saturday, with meteorologists warning of dangerous conditions across the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast models indicate a rapidly intensifying storm system capable of producing numerous strong and potentially violent tornadoes.
As a powerful trough strengthens behind an explosive low-pressure system on Friday, a warm front will surge northward early Saturday, setting the stage for a volatile weather event. Supercell thunderstorms—capable of producing long-track tornadoes—could ignite as early as midday, first targeting northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas before expanding eastward.
Multiple rounds of tornadic storms are anticipated throughout the afternoon and evening, with the risk zone possibly extending north of the Ohio River by Saturday night. Forecasters warn of a regional outbreak across southeast Iowa, eastern Missouri, Illinois, and parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas on Friday.
Then on Saturday, Severe weather will be possible from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, with the highest risk area over parts of Mississippi and Alabama, which currently have a “Moderate Risk” (4 out of 5).
Tornadoes—some potentially strong and long tracked—along with widespread wind gusts up to 90 mph and hail as large as baseballs, are possible. The storm system will rapidly intensify, producing fast-moving thunderstorms capable of causing significant damage. Areas in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys face a lower, but still serious, risk of severe weather, including long-track tornadoes and destructive winds.
Residents in the affected areas should stay alert, review safety plans, and ensure they have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Officials stress the importance of multiple reliable warning methods, including NOAA weather radios, smartphone alerts, and local TV and radio. This is a life-threatening situation—early preparation could be the key to staying safe.
